The $1 trillion prediction đź’¸

Investment bank Bernstein expects that prediction market volumes will hit $1 trillion by 2030, as institutions adopt the platforms as hedging instruments.

Author

Stephen Graves
April 14, 2026

đź“ť What you need to know

Analysts for investment bank Bernstein expect that trading volumes on prediction markets will hit $1 trillion by the end of the decade—but it won’t be driven by the retail users whose sports bets currently make up the lion’s share of trades on the platforms.

Instead, they reckon, it’ll be propelled by institutional adoption, with investors seeking “more direct and discrete exposure to events” as a way of hedging risk. That influx of capital could see revenue on the platforms jump more than 2,000% to $10.8 billion in that timeframe.

There’s still some considerable way to go yet, though. Sports remains the leading category on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with its share of trading volume standing at 42% and 78% respectively.

Prediction Market Volumes Will Hit $1 Trillion by 2030 as Sports Betting Moderates: Bernstein

Bernstein's analyst argued that prediction markets will be driven less by big league bets as institutions become more involved.

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