Rate hikes incoming? 📊

Bank of America analysts raised the prospect of a surprise Fed rate hike in a research note Friday—something that could have a mixed impact on Bitcoin's outlook

Author

Stephen Graves
March 20, 2026

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📝 What you need to know

Bank of America economists outlined a path towards a surprise Federal Reserve rate hike in a research note Friday—though they still consider rate cuts a more likely prospect.

The economists wrote that the chances of a rate hike would increase if Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tenure at the central bank’s helm runs longer than expected, the unemployment rate remains below 4.5%, and price pressures from higher energy costs spread to other parts of the economy.

Analysts told Decrypt that the likely outcome of a surprise rate hike would initially “not be great” for Bitcoin, though in the longer term the cryptocurrency could see a boost as the “debasement hedge” narrative gains traction.

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“The initial reaction to Bitcoin would not be great. But I think it would actually turn around and do quite well as people realize we could easily be in a stagflation environment.”

CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill on the likely impact of a surprise Fed rate hike

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