Cool inflation, hot Bitcoin 🔥

Bitcoin popped above $85,000 before steadying above $84,000 after the Fed's favorite inflation gauge came in cooler than expected.

Author

Stephen Graves
September 30, 2026

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📝 What you need to know

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in cooler than expected, with August core PCE up 3.0% year over year against forecasts of 3.3%, bringing down the odds of an October rate hike.

Bitcoin took the hint, pushing above $85,000 before settling near $84,400. Traders on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, price in a better-than-even chance that BTC holds above $84,000 in the near term, but don’t expect it to rise above $86,000 by the end of the week, putting just a 26% chance on that outcome.

Bitcoin Jumps on Cool PCE Inflation Data as Bond Yields Hit 20-Year Highs

The Fed's favorite inflation gauge came in cooler than expected, rate-hike odds fell and Bitcoin traders took the hint.

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Bitcoin (BTC)September 30, 2026
$84,400
▲ 0.4% (24h)
View live price

📊 Myriad Insight of the Day

Myriad prediction marketSeptember 30, 2026
Where will XRP trade on October 5?
XRP price at 4 p.m. UTC on October 5
    
Below $1.4523%
$1.45–$1.5025%
$1.50–$1.6029%
Above $1.6023%
Why it matters
With five days to go, XRP sits at $1.51, and traders see Monday's 4 p.m. UTC reading as a near coin flip, with 52% odds it finishes above $1.50. The tails are evenly matched: 23% on a slide below $1.45, 23% on a push past $1.60. Friday's U.S. jobs report lands before resolution, and Bitcoin has stalled near $84,000 since last week's rally faded.
Trade on Myriad

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