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Break the cycle? ⏱️
Bitcoin's historic four-year cycle suggests prices are due to drop, and traders may be selling accordingly—but many experts say the trend is outdated.
Andrew Hayward
October 18, 2025
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📝 What you need to know
Bitcoin historically follows a four-year cycle, providing a predictable pattern for traders tied to the coin’s quadrennial halving event. The theory goes that prices surge about a year after each halving, then crash. Given that Bitcoin hit a long-standing peak in November 2021, some traders are expecting another downturn right about now and selling accordingly.
But many experts think the cycle theory is outdated. With massive institutional adoption, Bitcoin ETFs, and the crypto market maturing, analysts say the halving just doesn't have the same impact it used to. And the recent markets plunge was triggered in large part by President Trump’s tariff threats. Still, some traders may continue to bet on the cycle until there’s definitive proof that the trend is toast.
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