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Bitcoin's quantum deadline ⚛️
A new Google research paper has Bitcoin security researchers bringing forward the "Q-day" deadline when quantum computers could crack elliptic curve cryptography.
Stephen Graves
March 31, 2026
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📝 What you need to know
In a new paper, Google researchers have warned that quantum computing could break elliptic curve cryptography, which underpins the security of blockchain networks, sooner than expected—a threat known as “Q-day.”
The paper’s authors urged the crypto community to transition blockchains to post-quantum cryptography to mitigate against the threat, while Bitcoin security researcher Justin Drake raised the odds of a quantum computer cracking private keys by 2032 to 10%.
That said, the crypto space remains broadly sanguine about the threat posed by “Q-Day,” with Bitfinex analysts calling it “far from an existential threat in its current form,” while engineers are already on the case.
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“My confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly. IMO there's at least a 10% chance that by 2032 a quantum computer recovers a secp256k1 ECDSA private key from an exposed public key.”
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