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Bitcoin goes up if US shuts down? 🇺🇸
As a U.S. government shutdown inches closer to reality, here's what analysts and historical data say could happen to crypto markets.
Andrew Hayward
September 29, 2025
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đź“ť What you need to know
With a potential United States government shutdown looming, crypto traders are starting to ponder the potential impact on Bitcoin and other assets—and history doesn’t paint a very clear picture.
Bitcoin traders are watching to see if the Fed will cut interest rates again, but a shutdown could delay key employment data they need. If Congress doesn't pass a funding bill by Tuesday midnight, then the Bureau of Labor Statistics might have to postpone the jobs report—which could make crypto markets more volatile since investors rely on that data to predict Fed moves.
Bitcoin was recently trading above $114,000 after rising over the last couple days, but how it'll react to a shutdown is anyone's guess. History is mixed here: During the 2013 shutdown, Bitcoin rose 14%—but during the 2018-2019 shutdown, the longest ever, it dropped 6%.
Analysts think we're in a better position now, similar to 2013's bull market rather than 2018's bear market. Still, expect some wild price swings in the short term as traders deal with the uncertainty around rate cuts and potential government dysfunction.
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